在许多应用和研究领域，时间序列的概率预测是重要的事情。为了从概率预测中得出结论，我们必须确保用于近似真实预测分布的模型类足够表达。然而，模型本身的特征，例如其不确定性或特征结果关系并不重要。本文提出了自回旋转换模型（ATM），该模型类是受各种研究方向启发的模型类别，使用半参数分布假设和可解释的模型规范结合表达性分布预测。我们在理论上和通过几个模拟和真实的预测数据集上通过经验评估来证明ATM的属性。

The number of international benchmarking competitions is steadily increasing in various fields of machine learning (ML) research and practice. So far, however, little is known about the common practice as well as bottlenecks faced by the community in tackling the research questions posed. To shed light on the status quo of algorithm development in the specific field of biomedical imaging analysis, we designed an international survey that was issued to all participants of challenges conducted in conjunction with the IEEE ISBI 2021 and MICCAI 2021 conferences (80 competitions in total). The survey covered participants' expertise and working environments, their chosen strategies, as well as algorithm characteristics. A median of 72% challenge participants took part in the survey. According to our results, knowledge exchange was the primary incentive (70%) for participation, while the reception of prize money played only a minor role (16%). While a median of 80 working hours was spent on method development, a large portion of participants stated that they did not have enough time for method development (32%). 25% perceived the infrastructure to be a bottleneck. Overall, 94% of all solutions were deep learning-based. Of these, 84% were based on standard architectures. 43% of the respondents reported that the data samples (e.g., images) were too large to be processed at once. This was most commonly addressed by patch-based training (69%), downsampling (37%), and solving 3D analysis tasks as a series of 2D tasks. K-fold cross-validation on the training set was performed by only 37% of the participants and only 50% of the participants performed ensembling based on multiple identical models (61%) or heterogeneous models (39%). 48% of the respondents applied postprocessing steps.

We consider a semi-supervised $k$-clustering problem where information is available on whether pairs of objects are in the same or in different clusters. This information is either available with certainty or with a limited level of confidence. We introduce the PCCC algorithm, which iteratively assigns objects to clusters while accounting for the information provided on the pairs of objects. Our algorithm can include relationships as hard constraints that are guaranteed to be satisfied or as soft constraints that can be violated subject to a penalty. This flexibility distinguishes our algorithm from the state-of-the-art in which all pairwise constraints are either considered hard, or all are considered soft. Unlike existing algorithms, our algorithm scales to large-scale instances with up to 60,000 objects, 100 clusters, and millions of cannot-link constraints (which are the most challenging constraints to incorporate). We compare the PCCC algorithm with state-of-the-art approaches in an extensive computational study. Even though the PCCC algorithm is more general than the state-of-the-art approaches in its applicability, it outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches on instances with all hard constraints or all soft constraints both in terms of running time and various metrics of solution quality. The source code of the PCCC algorithm is publicly available on GitHub.

We describe a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) that simulates the flow induced by the astronomical tide in a synthetic port channel, with dimensions based on the Santos - S\~ao Vicente - Bertioga Estuarine System. PINN models aim to combine the knowledge of physical systems and data-driven machine learning models. This is done by training a neural network to minimize the residuals of the governing equations in sample points. In this work, our flow is governed by the Navier-Stokes equations with some approximations. There are two main novelties in this paper. First, we design our model to assume that the flow is periodic in time, which is not feasible in conventional simulation methods. Second, we evaluate the benefit of resampling the function evaluation points during training, which has a near zero computational cost and has been verified to improve the final model, especially for small batch sizes. Finally, we discuss some limitations of the approximations used in the Navier-Stokes equations regarding the modeling of turbulence and how it interacts with PINNs.

The evolution of wireless communications into 6G and beyond is expected to rely on new machine learning (ML)-based capabilities. These can enable proactive decisions and actions from wireless-network components to sustain quality-of-service (QoS) and user experience. Moreover, new use cases in the area of vehicular and industrial communications will emerge. Specifically in the area of vehicle communication, vehicle-to-everything (V2X) schemes will benefit strongly from such advances. With this in mind, we have conducted a detailed measurement campaign with the purpose of enabling a plethora of diverse ML-based studies. The resulting datasets offer GPS-located wireless measurements across diverse urban environments for both cellular (with two different operators) and sidelink radio access technologies, thus enabling a variety of different studies towards V2X. The datasets are labeled and sampled with a high time resolution. Furthermore, we make the data publicly available with all the necessary information to support the on-boarding of new researchers. We provide an initial analysis of the data showing some of the challenges that ML needs to overcome and the features that ML can leverage, as well as some hints at potential research studies.

Neural machine translation (NMT) has become the de-facto standard in real-world machine translation applications. However, NMT models can unpredictably produce severely pathological translations, known as hallucinations, that seriously undermine user trust. It becomes thus crucial to implement effective preventive strategies to guarantee their proper functioning. In this paper, we address the problem of hallucination detection in NMT by following a simple intuition: as hallucinations are detached from the source content, they exhibit encoder-decoder attention patterns that are statistically different from those of good quality translations. We frame this problem with an optimal transport formulation and propose a fully unsupervised, plug-in detector that can be used with any attention-based NMT model. Experimental results show that our detector not only outperforms all previous model-based detectors, but is also competitive with detectors that employ large models trained on millions of samples.

The vulnerabilities of fingerprint-based recognition systems to direct attacks with and without the cooperation of the user are studied. Two different systems, one minutiae-based and one ridge feature-based, are evaluated on a database of real and fake fingerprints. Based on the fingerprint images quality and on the results achieved on different operational scenarios, we obtain a number of statistically significant observations regarding the robustness of the systems.

Despite the impact of psychiatric disorders on clinical health, early-stage diagnosis remains a challenge. Machine learning studies have shown that classifiers tend to be overly narrow in the diagnosis prediction task. The overlap between conditions leads to high heterogeneity among participants that is not adequately captured by classification models. To address this issue, normative approaches have surged as an alternative method. By using a generative model to learn the distribution of healthy brain data patterns, we can identify the presence of pathologies as deviations or outliers from the distribution learned by the model. In particular, deep generative models showed great results as normative models to identify neurological lesions in the brain. However, unlike most neurological lesions, psychiatric disorders present subtle changes widespread in several brain regions, making these alterations challenging to identify. In this work, we evaluate the performance of transformer-based normative models to detect subtle brain changes expressed in adolescents and young adults. We trained our model on 3D MRI scans of neurotypical individuals (N=1,765). Then, we obtained the likelihood of neurotypical controls and psychiatric patients with early-stage schizophrenia from an independent dataset (N=93) from the Human Connectome Project. Using the predicted likelihood of the scans as a proxy for a normative score, we obtained an AUROC of 0.82 when assessing the difference between controls and individuals with early-stage schizophrenia. Our approach surpassed recent normative methods based on brain age and Gaussian Process, showing the promising use of deep generative models to help in individualised analyses.

In many risk-aware and multi-objective reinforcement learning settings, the utility of the user is derived from a single execution of a policy. In these settings, making decisions based on the average future returns is not suitable. For example, in a medical setting a patient may only have one opportunity to treat their illness. Making decisions using just the expected future returns -- known in reinforcement learning as the value -- cannot account for the potential range of adverse or positive outcomes a decision may have. Therefore, we should use the distribution over expected future returns differently to represent the critical information that the agent requires at decision time by taking both the future and accrued returns into consideration. In this paper, we propose two novel Monte Carlo tree search algorithms. Firstly, we present a Monte Carlo tree search algorithm that can compute policies for nonlinear utility functions (NLU-MCTS) by optimising the utility of the different possible returns attainable from individual policy executions, resulting in good policies for both risk-aware and multi-objective settings. Secondly, we propose a distributional Monte Carlo tree search algorithm (DMCTS) which extends NLU-MCTS. DMCTS computes an approximate posterior distribution over the utility of the returns, and utilises Thompson sampling during planning to compute policies in risk-aware and multi-objective settings. Both algorithms outperform the state-of-the-art in multi-objective reinforcement learning for the expected utility of the returns.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is having a tremendous impact across most areas of science. Applications of AI in healthcare have the potential to improve our ability to detect, diagnose, prognose, and intervene on human disease. For AI models to be used clinically, they need to be made safe, reproducible and robust, and the underlying software framework must be aware of the particularities (e.g. geometry, physiology, physics) of medical data being processed. This work introduces MONAI, a freely available, community-supported, and consortium-led PyTorch-based framework for deep learning in healthcare. MONAI extends PyTorch to support medical data, with a particular focus on imaging, and provide purpose-specific AI model architectures, transformations and utilities that streamline the development and deployment of medical AI models. MONAI follows best practices for software-development, providing an easy-to-use, robust, well-documented, and well-tested software framework. MONAI preserves the simple, additive, and compositional approach of its underlying PyTorch libraries. MONAI is being used by and receiving contributions from research, clinical and industrial teams from around the world, who are pursuing applications spanning nearly every aspect of healthcare.